What War with Iran Might Look Like

President Obama and the Republican candidates who want to replace him talk a lot about how bad it would be if Iran got a nuclear weapon, and about how no options are off the table.  That last part is code for "we might bomb and invade your country, occupy it with our military, and install a friendly government, like we did in neighboring Iraq and Afghanistan."  The reason they say it in code is that they don't want you to think about what a war with Iran might look like.  Well, I've thought about it, and I'd like you to consider some of the possibilities.


First, some facts.  Iran's armed forces, called the most powerful in the Middle East by General John Abizaid, chief of U.S. Central Command, has launched no wars of choice in modern history, and its leadership adheres to a doctrine of "no first strike".   We outspend them almost 100-to-1, but we outspend everybody, and we're currently using that whole budget on other things, like stationing troops in Austrailia.  And since Iran has over 500,000 well-equiped troops, it would take a lot more U.S. troops to invade Iran than it took to invade battle-weary Iraq (peak = 157,800 U.S. troops in 2008).  Imagine the size and terrain of Alaska, and that's about the size and terrain of Iran.  It goes without saying that nobody in Iran would welcome U.S. troops as liberators, and resistance to an invasion would be widespread and vigorous even beyond the country's military.


Second, some assumptions.  I'm assuming a scenario where the U.S. invades Iran in a manner roughly similar to how it went in Iraq.  This seems a middle-of-the-road scenario falling between what we're doing now (sanctions, surveillance, and assassination), and nuking them back to the stone age.  Former U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney has publicly recommended bombing Iran.


What's the worst that could happen if we attack Iran?

• War with Iran could bankrupt the United States.  Some argue we're already bankrupt, and with our national debt now greater than 100% of our GDP (a higher ratio of debt-to-GDP than Ireland or Portugal), they have a point.  The exact cost of the Iraq war is unknown, but estimates range between $1 trillion and $4 trillion dollars.  So if we use $2 trillion as an optimistic estimate for the cost to invade Iran, can the U.S. afford this?  Will we default on our debt, or merely inflate the U.S. dollar so that we can pay it off?  Hyperinflation anyone?
• We could reinstate the draft.  One reason the American public so blithely supports our Endless War State is that soldiering is seen as just another profession, a good opportunity for some young people.  But if kids with plenty of better things to do with their lives than shoot at foreigners and get their legs blown off start getting drafted, we could find ourselves in an ugly situation.  But once we start the invasion, a draft may be inevitable, since our culture forbids retreat.
• We could start World War III.  Would China, Russia, Syria, and the other Arab states sit idly by while the U.S. took over another country in the region?  Would somebody attack Israel in retaliation?  Given the state of tension in international relations generally, none of this seems "off the table".

I don't know if any of these things will actually happen, but neither do the pundits, generals, or politicians who say we must move against Iran.  They seem a little too willing to risk what seem like some pretty dire consequences, and for what?  To prevent another sovereign nation from getting a weapon that the U.S. has thousands of?  And seeing that the U.S. is the only country to have ever used an atomic weapon, who should the world be more worried about?


Our leaders live in a world that makes them think things like war with Iran might be a good idea.  You need to help bring them back down to earth.  The risks are just too great.  Tell Obama to stop antagonizing Iran and back off.  Contact your congressional representatives and tell them to rein in Mr. Peace Prize.  This might not do any good, but it's necessary that you express your views so they can't claim legitimacy.  And for best results, vote for the only Presidential candidate who explicitly advocates reducing our militarism and entering a foreign policy of Mutually Assured Respect.